The National Council on Problem Gambling has described prediction markets as “functionally gambling”, while its programs director, Jaime Costello, resigned on the day the organisation issued the statement.
In its Sept. 24 statement, NCPG President Derek Longmeier said the platforms can expose consumers to many of the same risks and harms as traditional gambling. He said the council remained neutral on whether prediction markets should be legal, but not on the need to prevent and reduce gambling-related harm.
Costello said the organisation’s environment had shifted over the preceding year in ways she could no longer reconcile with how she believed the work should be done, according to Gaming America. The available accounts place her resignation on the same day as Longmeier’s statement, but do not establish that the statement caused her departure.
Longmeier said prediction markets had rapidly become a mainstream product used by millions of Americans, with an unprecedented scale, speed and reach to new, often young, users. NCPG said people were already experiencing financial, emotional and relationship consequences from the products.
The council pointed to a Harris Poll conducted for NCPG in which 85% of Americans agreed that people can develop unhealthy or addictive behaviours related to prediction-market platforms. Another 84% said the platforms should receive treatment similar to gambling for consumer-protection purposes.
NCPG has called for responsible-engagement tools, self-exclusion, age verification, clear risk disclosures and direct help lines as minimum standards for providers of gambling or functionally gambling products. It also launched its Financial Trader Health and Safety Initiative earlier this year.
The position arrives amid a widening dispute over NCPG’s decision to accept Kalshi as a platinum member after a $2 million investment spread over two years. NCPG created a Financial Services & Trading subcategory that allowed the prediction-market operator to join, while maintaining that membership or funding does not control its research, advocacy, policy positions or public statements.
As covered last week, NCPG has defended the Kalshi relationship as a means of pursuing harm reduction rather than an endorsement of the company or a ruling on the legality of prediction markets.
Ohio’s Casino Control Commission withdrew from NCPG in June, Michigan’s Gaming Control Board announced its exit in early July, and the Nevada Council on Problem Gambling left in August. Ohio officials warned that Kalshi’s membership could confuse consumers into believing it offered protections comparable with licensed sportsbooks, while Michigan cited concerns about association with organisations linked to companies engaged in illegal gambling.
The Evergreen Council on Problem Gambling also ended a 35-year affiliation with NCPG. It said the national body had accepted Kalshi funding without prior board approval and that the organisations’ missions were no longer aligned. Massachusetts, by contrast, voted 5-0 to remain an NCPG member while it continues its review.
Prediction-market companies generally describe their products as closer to financial markets than conventional sports betting, and argue that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has sole federal regulatory authority. State gaming regulators have nevertheless intensified scrutiny of the sector’s sports offerings over the past two years.
