South Africa’s bookmakers’ association has urged policymakers to move quickly on prediction markets after reports that more than R700,000 had been wagered on who would become Johannesburg’s next mayor.
In a position paper published on the day of the report, the South African Bookmakers’ Association said offshore platforms such as Polymarket pose risks to consumers, sporting integrity, democratic processes and the country’s regulatory framework. It argued that prediction markets are, in substance, exchange-style betting products operating under a different name.
The association said those products should be regulated accordingly when the law allows. It also called for a dedicated legislative review before any licensing framework is considered, and said a precautionary approach should be adopted until the right safeguards are in place.
Sean Coleman, SABA’s chief executive, said South Africa had spent years building a regulated gambling environment that protects consumers, promotes responsible gambling, combats money laundering and generates tax revenue. He warned that it would be a serious mistake to let offshore operators sidestep those obligations simply by calling their products prediction markets rather than betting.
Coleman said any future consideration of prediction markets should go through a clear legislative process centred on integrity, consumer protection, anti-money laundering and public confidence. Until then, he said, such platforms should not be allowed to operate outside the existing regulatory framework.
The paper was prompted by reports that Polymarket, a US-based prediction-market platform, had seen more than R700,000, or just over $43,000, wagered on who would lead the City of Johannesburg after municipal elections. Screenshots said to show the market suggested it opened last month and listed Helen Zille, Loyiso Masuku, Herman Mashaba, Frank Chikane and David Makhura among the names traders could back.
Those screenshots placed Zille, the Democratic Alliance’s federal council chairperson, at a 67% implied probability. Frank Chikane was shown at 14.1%, and David Makhura at 2.6%.
The report also said much of the money behind the “yes” position for Zille appeared to come from a single account holding more than $500,000 in open positions on the platform. It added that thin markets can look dramatic when one determined trader leans on the table.
SABA said prediction markets closely resemble peer-to-peer betting exchanges, where individuals bet directly against one another while the platform matches participants and earns commission. It said that resemblance creates many of the same policy, regulatory and integrity concerns that have long surrounded betting exchanges.
The association pointed to warnings from international integrity bodies, including the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities, that products allowing participants to profit from losing outcomes or specific events can increase the risks of corruption, insider manipulation, match-fixing and criminal exploitation.
It said those concerns become sharper when prediction markets extend beyond sport into politics, legislation and public appointments, where they can create fresh risks for democratic integrity.
The wider regulatory backdrop in South Africa is already restrictive. A government compendium on the National Gambling Act 7 of 2004 says the law regulates casinos, racing, gambling and wagering, sets out a licensing regime and gives both national and provincial government power to grant and withdraw gaming licences.
The same document says South Africa has a national gambling board and nine provincial gambling and racing boards, and that online gambling offered in South Africa or elsewhere is outlawed and prohibited. It says online sports betting, online horse-race betting and bookmaking are lawful only when the operator holds the necessary provincial bookmaker’s licence or uses a properly licensed website.
Other reporting suggests the authorities are still assessing where prediction markets fit. The Financial Sector Conduct Authority has said it could not give a formal view while it awaited an International Organisation of Securities Commissions study, and confirmed that neither Kalshi nor Polymarket had applied for a licence.
The National Gambling Board said in March that it had not considered prediction markets for gambling and was not aware of any prediction-market company applying to a provincial gambling regulator for a licence. The Electoral Commission, when asked about November’s local government election, said concern would arise only if a platform or information published through it were used to unlawfully influence voters or publish false information.
The debate sits within a fast-growing global market. A World Lottery Association position paper said prediction-market transaction volumes rose from under $100 million per month in early 2024 to more than $13 billion per month by late 2025, reaching $26 billion in January 2026.
The WLA said 90% or more of current volume is driven by sports and other event contracts, and forecast that annual trading volumes could reach $1 trillion or more by 2030. It argued that growth has been fuelled by deliberate regulatory arbitrage and that rebranding does not change the underlying product.
